Educational Webinar About Pension Risk Management

Please join Dr. Susan Mangiero on November 2, 2016 for a one hour online program about pension risk management. The webinar is sponsored by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association (“PRMIA“) in recognition of the importance of the subject. This learning event qualifies for one Continuing Professional Education (“CPE”) credit.

A program description is shown below. You can register by clicking here. If you have specific questions ahead of November 2, please call 1-612-605-5370 and ask to speak to someone in Learning and Development.

Program Overview: According to estimates, global retirement assets are huge at $500 trillion. Improper decision-making about plan design, investment and risk mitigation could have an adverse impact on millions of individuals to include employees, retirees, taxpayers and shareholders. Service providers such as asset managers, banks and insurance companies are likewise impacted by bad governance and unchecked risk-taking. Everyone has a stake in the financial health of the worldwide retirement system and whether uncertainty is being adequately identified, measured, managed and monitored, especially now. New regulations, a flurry of fiduciary breach lawsuits, low interest rates, the complexity of modeling longevity, increased risk-taking, need for liquidity, cost of capital and worker mobility are just a few of the challenges that keep retirement plan executives, participants and their advisors up at night.

This one hour webinar will present an overview of retirement plan risk management to include the following:

  • Description of economic and regulatory trends that influence retirement plan management liability and asset decisions;
  • Discussion about retirement plan risk-taking, fiduciary liability and increased need for effective risk management protocols;
  • Explanation of different categories of retirement plan risks;
  • Discussion about the interrelationships of different categories of retirement plan risks; and
  • What can be done, process-wise, to establish and maintain an effective retirement plan risk management program.

Pension Risk Matters Blog Turns Ten Years Old

A decade after its debut on March 23, 2006, Pension Risk Matters is still going strong with well over 1 million visitors and over 1, 000 commentaries. At the time of its inception, there weren't too many economic blogs devoted to topics such as pension governance and risk management. I'm not sure why. Then and now, these areas command attention. Nevertheless, I want to express my heartfelt thanks to readers, commenters and individuals who allowed me to interview them and also to Pensions & Investments for its recognition of Pension Risk Matters as a "best blog."

As I reflect on the last ten years of blogging, I decided to pen ten takeaways about my experiences. Here they are:

  1. Blogging can be enjoyable if you like to write (and I do). However, it does take time and not everyone has the inclination to research a topic, write about it and then edit their work. On average, I review each blog post for grammar, spelling and consistency two or three times before I hit the "publish" button. In addition, I test any embedded web or file links to make sure that they work.
  2. When it comes to blogging about a time-sensitive topic, not everyone can respond quickly. Many companies have social media policies that strictly prohibit an employee from posting to a blog or other platform without having content pre-approved by a compliance officer.
  3. A blogger should have a mission that makes it easy to return to the keyboard over and over. In my case, I have long been a believer in the importance of sharing information about industry trends and best practices. I strive for neutrality by writing in a way that hopefully educates and informs rather than taking an advocacy position about a particular investment or service provider.
  4. Identify a good technology vendor with whom you can collaborate. Originally, I created blog posts as part of a company website but soon found that approach wanting. As a result, I searched for a company that could provide added functionality. I ended up selecting Lex Blog to design Pension Risk Matters as a standalone blog destination. Later on, I asked Lex Blog to design a second blog - an investment compliance blog called Good Risk Governance Pays. Luckily I have not had too many reasons to contact customer support. When I have, they have responded quickly. Another advantage of working with a dedicated blog company is the ability to bounce ideas around about content delivery and enhancing traffic.
  5. Know the parameters of what is likely to work in terms of ease of use and access. Last year, I had Lex Blog migrate content on Good Risk Governance Pays to a responsive platform that allows readers to quickly view blog posts on a smart phone or tablet. I plan to do that soon with Pension Risk Matters.
  6. Add humor whenever possible. It's not easy to spin jokes about serious subjects such as due diligence or reasonableness of fees. What I do instead, when appropriate, is to choose colorful photos that stand out or begin a commentary with an attention-grabbing quote or anecdote. I'm always happy when readers tell me that they enjoyed reading a post because it was funny or at least memorable.
  7. If you use photos (and I recommend that you do), make sure that you have permission. I am a paid subscriber to several stock photo services, each of which has its own terms and conditions and rate schedule. Whenever someone contacts me with a request to use a photo, I suggest that they contact one of these photo services directly.
  8. Link back to earlier posts if it makes sense to do so. I mark each of my essays as belonging to one or more categories such as Fiduciary Education, Hedge Funds or Valuation. By doing so, life is simpler later on. I can click on any category link to refresh my memory about a preceding analysis that may have relevance to the topic du jour. For example, I just wrote about possible private equity obligations to a portfolio company with an underfunded pension plan(s). I did not remember the exact dates of an earlier set of posts I authored but clicked on Private Equity to quickly find four related posts. In a few minutes, I was able to retrieve and embed various links in my April 2, 2016 write-up.
  9. Be curious and stay abreast of industry happenings. This should be occurring anyhow, especially as the financial services industry continues to shake out from changing regulations, competitive pressures and market events. It's straightforward to set up Google alerts for various keywords and sign up for magazine newsletters. Make notes when attending conferences or webinars. Ask readers for suggestions about what they want to know. I never have a shortage of ideas. 
  10. Have fun. While true that numerous business bloggers commit time and money as part of an overall marketing and sales campaign, it is equally rewarding to be able to interact with professionals about how to stay current and seek to do the best job possible. If one of my blog posts is the springboard to such a discussion, so much the better.

Note to Readers: Many thanks again for your continued interest. If you want to guest blog about the financial services industry and are amenable to writing an educational essay, please email your topic idea and contact information.

Public Pension Funds and Municipal Bond Issuance

On June 1, 2015, I will be talking about pension risk management with several other invited co-speakers. Part of the annual meeting of the Government Finance Officers Association ("GFOA"), this panel will address topics that include (a) what risk management means to public pension fiduciaries (b) different board oversight models (c) the role of strategic asset allocation and (d) reasons why numerous government plans are experiencing deficits. Just as important, we will discuss what risk management means when capital-raising solutions or plan design decisions are denied by lawmakers or courts.

Nowadays, it is nearly impossible to pick up a newspaper without reading an article about pension obligation bonds, bond ratings and legislative pressures to create a fix. As Thomas A. Corfman points out in "Weighing higher taxes against the pension deficit" (Crain's Chicago Business, May 16, 2015), Illinois Governor, Bruce Rauner, has to consider fiscal reform in the aftermath of the State Supreme Court decision that prevents a cut in promised benefits. Increasing income taxes and taxing retirement income are two paths with economic potential to address the nearly $105 billion shortfall but likely to upset voters. Notably, Moody's Investors Service announced on May 1, 2015 that "...Chicago's unfunded pension liabilities and ongoing pension costs will grow significantly, forcing city officials to make difficult decisions for years to come." Its related downgrades of certain city-issued debt will increase expenses and widen the gap between inflows and obligations.

Elsewhere, an attempt to issue fixed income securities as a way to lower "the $23 billion unfunded liability of Colorado's Public Employees Retirement Association" did not gain approval by a requisite State Senate committee. Monica Mendoza with the Denver Business Journal wrote on May 5, 2015 that complex covenants were partly to blame. In Pennsylvania, pension obligation bonds may go forward but that has not curtailed Governor Tom Wolf from issuing a vow to "stop excessive fees to Wall Street managers." With approximately $77 billion in assets in 2014 and $50 billion in unfunded retirement plan commitments, the Keystone State has a heavy load to bear.

New Jersey is another state where heated protests focus on pension deficits. According to "Union bashes Christie on pension cuts in new ad" by Samantha Marcus (, May 15, 2015), the Governor has cut almost $1.6 billion "from this year's pension payment to balance the budget." Earlier this month, the Garden State highest court heard arguments about whether such cuts are valid under the law.

The list of beleaguered plan sponsors is long as is the set of issues relating to risk management. For example, absent a green light to issue pension obligation bonds and populist disinterest in seeing benefits cut or taxes raised, can a public pension plan asset-allocate its way to better funding? If a focus on investments is the goal, won't that mean that a grossly underfunded plan will end up assuming a lot more risk? Supposing that the answer is "yes," can a cost-effective infrastructure be established to mitigate risks such as less liquidity without sacrificing expected performance?

No doubt our panel discussion will be lively and timely. I hope you can join us on June 1 for the pension risk management panel.

Pension Usage of Swaps

I have been writing, training and consulting about the use of derivatives by pension plans for many years. There is no shortage of topics, especially in the aftermath of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection ("Dodd-Frank") and the fact that pension investing and derivatives trading are significant elements of the capital markets. The OECD estimates the size of the private pension system in 2012 at $32.1 trillion. The Bank for International Settlements estimates the June 2013 global derivatives market size at $692.9 trillion.  

Given the importance of the topic of pension risk management and the evolving regulatory landscape, it was a pleasure to have a chance to recently speak with Patrick S. Menasco. A partner with Steptoe Johnson, Attorney Menasco assists plan investors, investment advisers and broker-dealers as they seek to navigate the laws relating to hedging, swaps clearing and much more. Here are a few of the take-away points from that discussion.

Question: Do the swaps provisions embedded in the Dodd-Frank legislation contradict the netting rules that are part of U.S. bankruptcy law?

Answer: No, the netting provisions of the Bankruptcy Code remain intact and should be taken into account in negotiating swap agreements. To the extent feasible, a performing counterparty wants to be able to net obligations in the event of a counterparty insolvency and default.

Question: Your firm obtained Advisory Opinion 2013-01A from the U.S. Department of Labor ("DOL") on February 7, 2013 regarding swaps clearing, plan assets and ERISA fiduciary duties. Explain the importance of identifying plan assets in the clearing context.

Answer: ERISA, including its prohibited transaction rules, governs "plan assets." Thus, it is critical to determine whether margin posted by a plan in connection with swaps clearing and the swap positions held in the plan's account are considered "plan assets" for ERISA purposes. Among other things, Advisory Opinion 2013-01A gives comfort that (1) margin posted by the investor to the clearing agent generally will not be considered a plan asset for ERISA purposes and (2) clearing agents will be able to unilaterally exercise agreed-upon close-out rights on the plan's default without being deemed a fiduciary to the plan, notwithstanding that the positions are plan assets.

Question: The headlines are replete with news articles about swap transactions with pension plans that could be potentially unwound in the event of bankruptcy. Detroit comes to mind. Should non-pension plan counterparties be worried about a possible unwinding in the event of pension plan counterparty distress?

Answer: Yes and no. The case in Detroit (which is currently on appeal) illustrates the risk that, notwithstanding state or local law to the contrary, federal bankruptcy judges may disregard the legal separation between municipal governments and the pension trusts they sponsor, treating those trusts as part of the estate. This may present certain credit and legal risks to the trusts' swap counterparties, although the Bankruptcy Code's swap netting provisions may mitigate some of those risks. I doubt that we will see anything similar to Detroit in the corporate pension plan arena because ERISA not only recognizes, as a matter of federal law, the separate legal existence of such plans, but also affirmatively prohibits the use of plan assets for the benefit of the sponsor. Separately, many broker-dealers negotiate rights to terminate existing swaps upon certain credit events, including the plan sponsor filing for bankruptcy or ceasing to make plan contributions.

Question: How does Dodd-Frank impact the transacting of swaps between an ERISA plan and non-pension plan counterparties such as banks, asset managers or insurance companies?

Answer: Dodd-Frank does a number of things. For one, it adds a layer of protection for ERISA and government plans (and others), through certain "External Business Conduct" standards. Generally, these standards seek to ensure the suitability of the swaps entered into by the investors. Invariably, swap dealers will comply by availing themselves of multiple safe harbors from "trading advisor" status, which triggers various obligations relating to ensuring suitability. Very generally, these safe harbors seek to ensure that the investor is represented by a qualified decision-maker that is independent of, and not reliant upon, the swap dealer. Under protocol documents developed by the International Swaps & Derivatives Association ("ISDA"), the safe harbors are largely ensured through representations and disclosures of the plan, decision-maker and swap dealer (as well as underlying policies and procedures).

Question: Dodd-Frank has a far reach. Would you comment on other relevant requirements?

Answer: Separately, Dodd-Frank imposes various execution and clearing requirements on certain swaps. These requirements raise a number of issues under the prohibited transaction rules of ERISA and Section 4975 of the Internal Revenue Code. Exemptions from those rules will be needed for (1) the swap itself (unless blind) (2) the execution and clearing services (3) the guarantee of the trade by the clearing agent and (4) close-out transactions in the event of a plan default. This last point presents perhaps the thorniest issue, particularly for ERISA plan investors that direct their own trade swaps and thus cannot avail themselves of the Qualified Professional Asset Manager ("QPAM"), In-House Asset Manager ("INHAM") or other "utility" or "investor-based" class exemptions. The DOL expressly blesses the use of the QPAM and INHAM exemptions in the aforementioned Advisory Opinion 2013-01A, under certain conditions. Senior U.S. Department of Labor staff members have informally confirmed that the DOL saw no need to discuss the other utility exemptions (including Prohibited Transaction Class Exemption ("PTCE") 90-1, 91-38 and 95-6) for close-out trades because they assumed they could apply, if their conditions were met.

Question: Is there a solution for those ERISA plans that direct their own swap trading?

Answer: It is unclear. There are only two exemptions, at least currently, that could even conceivably apply: ERISA Section 408(b)(2) and Section 408(b)(17), also known as the Service Provider Exemption. The first covers only services, such as clearing, and the DOL has given no indication that it views close-out trades as so ancillary to the clearing function as to be covered under the exemption. In contrast, the Service Provider Exemption covers all transactions other than services. But it also requires that a fiduciary makes a good faith determination that the subject transaction is for "adequate consideration." If the close-out trades are viewed as the subject transaction, who is the fiduciary making that determination? The DOL's Advisory Opinion 2013-01A says that it isn't the clearing agent. Thus, to make the Service Provider Exemption work, you have to tie the close-out trades back to the original decision by the plan fiduciary to engage the clearing agent and exchange rights and obligations, including close-out rights. That argument has not been well received by the DOL, at least so far.

Many thanks to Patrick S. Menasco, a partner with Steptoe & Johnson LLP, for taking time to share his insights with readers. If you would like more information about pension risk management, click to email Dr. Susan Mangiero.

Pension De-Risking For ERISA Plan Sponsors

I am delighted to join the speaker faculty for a December 10, 2013 webinar entitled "Pension De-Risking for Employee Benefit Sponsors: Minimizing Risks and Ensuring ERISA Compliance When Transferring Pension Obligations to Other Parties." If this topic is of interest to you, send me an email. I can make ten (10) guest passes available on a complimentary, first come, first served basis. Otherwise, you and your colleagues can register by visiting the Strafford Continuing Legal Education site. This topic is important and timely. I look forward to having you join us on December 10, 2013.

As U.S. pension plans face record deficits, options for transferring some or all of a sponsor's plan risk make sense for many companies. General Motors, NCR and Verizon are a few companies that have chosen de-risking options in 2012.

De-risking transactions take many forms, from transferring company obligations to third parties, to offering payouts to plan participants, to undertaking liability-driven investing and other strategies. Counsel and companies must tread carefully to avoid ERISA-based litigation or enforcement actions.

Prudent de-risking requires thorough financial analysis and clear demonstrations that ERISA fiduciary standards are met. Counsel should guide companies on how to establish the reasonableness of decisions and prepare to defend against possible court challenges.

Susan Mangiero, Managing Member at Fiduciary Leadership; Sam Myler at McDermott Will & Emery; Anthony A. Dreyspool, Senior Managing Director at Brock Fiduciary Services and David Hartman, General Counsel and Vice President at General Motors Asset Management, will provide benefits counsel with a review of pension de-risking approaches used by companies to reduce some of the risks involved with employee retirement benefits.  The panel will offer best practices for leveraging the precautions to prevent ERISA fiduciary law violations when making transfers.

The panel will review these and other key questions:

  • How can pension providers demonstrate they have met their ERISA standards of prudence, care and loyalty to plan participants?
  • What steps should be taken in preparation for termination of a pension plan?
  • What are the grounds for the various challenges to de-risking techniques and what are the techniques to avoid those challenges?

Following the speaker presentations, you'll have an opportunity to get answers to your specific questions during the interactive Q&A.


J.P. Morgan Predicts Gloomy Year Ahead For Pension Plans

According to its Fall 2012 issue of Pension Pulse, published by the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Strategy Group, 2013 is going to be "grim" for pension funds after a less than jovial 2012. Citing a drop in funded status for many U.S. plans this year, "despite a 14% stock market rally," trouble spots are unlikely to disappear any time soon, putting continued pressure on the size of liabilities.

To tame the beasts in the form of "funded status volatility, unfavorable changes in the index used to value pension liabilities and longevity assumptions that increase liability values," employers continue to explore de-risking transactions such as offering lump sums and buyouts. Contrary to popular belief, the authors point out that even companies with underfunded plans like lump sum arrangements. The appeal is in part motivated by tax rules that allow "certain plans to use backdated discount rates to value lump sum payouts" that are higher than current discount rates.

Although the evidence suggests an increased demand on the part of plan sponsors to de-risk, J.P. Morgan professionals reference a ceiling of about $70 billion more over the next four or five years before industry capacity is reached for pension risk transfers. Of course, any time that demand increases and supply remains static, prices will rise as a result. At the margin, that could encourage some organizations from de-risking.

The report goes on to describe a "surreal discount rate" situation as the result of some bank securities being downgraded below AA in June of 2012. The net effect - a change in the discount rate curve that "reduced the weight of financials" - left only ten issuers to make up 75% of the market value of the index. Arguably, this increases the "inherent concentration risk" which in turn could increase the volatility of the index, thereby sending employers off on a measurement roller coaster ride. Shareholders could then feel the pinch if companies have to add cash to a plan as funding levels sink.

Adding insult to injury, the authors describe a change in actuarial assumptions that could significantly push the costs upward for companies that sponsor pension and Other Post Employment Benefits ("OPEB") programs. Their assertions are that (1) "changing actuarial assumptions are likely to increase pension liabilities by 2% to 5%" and (2) uncapped post-retirement health care benefits could go up by 6% to 9%.

Taken individually or together, the various pressures on retirement plan liabilities suggest a busy year ahead for ERISA fiduciaries and their support staff.

Global Pension Assets: Another Tough Year

Hot off the press, the OECD's September 2012 issue of "Pension Markets In Focus" includes some notable statistics about pension schemes around the world. While aggregate assets increased to over $20 trillion (as of December 2011), post-fee real rates of return were miniscule at best. With an average annual rate of return of -1.7%, few winners bested the market at large. The award for the highest performing pension system went to Denmark with an annual return of 12.1% in 2011, followed by the Netherlands (8.2%), Australia (4.1%) and Iceland and New Zealand, each turning in a modest 2.3%. Turkey, Italy, Spain, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States realized negative returns.

The news is not all grim.

According to André Laboul, OECD Head of the Financial Affairs Division Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, assessments of performance that consider many years show that the traditional 60% equity and 40% long-term sovereign bond mix have generated positive returns that range from 2.8% in Japan to 5.8% in the United Kingdom. Of course, many factors are at play, not the least of which is how much latitude an investment committee or policy-making body has to allocate monies locally versus internationally, the rate at which assets grow (and can be put to work) and the fees that are paid to various service providers.

Regarding asset class exposure, OECD researchers note that pension funds' allocation to "public equities declined significantly compared to past years." This trend is likewise noted in the "Global Pension Assets Study 2012." Published by Towers Watson in January, this compilation of interesting data points shows that the Netherlands and Japan have a "higher than average" allocation to bonds. In contrast, "in 2011, Australia, the UK and the US retained above average equity allocations." Apportioning more monies to alternatives is an undeniable reality for retirement plans in multiple countries

Since more than a few people posit that asset allocation decisions dominate portfolio returns, it is critical to track who is investing in what. Pension de-risking activity will likely have an impact on defined benefit plan portfolio mix going forward if, as experts suggest, more companies decide to exit or modify their exposure to the "pension business" by freezing a plan, using derivatives, offering lump sum payouts, entering into group annuities and so on.

Pension restructuring and adding more alternatives are factors that are changing the governance landscape in numerous ways. For one thing, the need for investigative due diligence and independent valuation services arguably becomes more acute. Second, the regulatory focus on holdings disclosure and compensation paid to service providers could inhibit the use of private funds at the same time that yield-seekers are writing checks.

The "push-pull" dynamic is holding everyone's attention since so much money is at stake.

Pension Risk End Game

Are we there yet?

While traveling to New York City the other day on Metro North, I sat behind a little boy who kept asking his parents the same question that many in the pension field are pondering.

The issue of what end game applies is noteworthy, especially now that Congress has adopted pension reform.

In "Looking for Cash, Congress Finds Some in a Corporate Pension Rule Tweak," New York Times reporter Mary Williams Walsh (June 28, 2012) describes the parts of the just passed highway bill that could force costs upward for American businesses. For one thing, sponsors will be able to stretch out their cash outlays to buoy underfunded defined benefit plans over time. As a result, tax-deductible contributions will be smaller in the next few years, taxable income will be higher and federal tax coffers will go up by an estimated $9.4 billion over the next 10 years." In addition, insurance premiums that companies pay to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation ("PBGC") will be higher to the tune of roughly $10 billion in the coming decade.

The news is troublesome for numerous reasons.

For one thing, employees, retirees, creditors and shareholders are going to find it even more challenging to assess the true cost to companies that offer benefit plans. As a result, they could be in for a nasty surprise later on if reported performance numbers are overly optimistic and mask a large liability that eventually will require cash. Second, the increased PBGC premiums are slated for general revenue which means that incremental dollars may never be available to pay participants of troubled sponsors because they have already been spent elsewhere. Third, using corporate pension plans as a national piggyback to pay for other programs goes against the nature of the trust arrangement that was put in place with the 1974 creation of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act ("ERISA"). Fourth, measuring pension risk and managing it effectively requires those in charge to have a good handle on the economic objectives they are seeking to satisfy. Chief financial officers ("CFO"s) and treasurers could be doing an excellent job of mitigating relevant uncertainties but not be rewarded if capital market participants emphasize accounting numbers that do not capture what is really going on.

Dr. Susan Mangiero, CFA charterholder, certified Financial Risk Manager, Accredited Investment Fiduciary Analyst and author of Pension Risk Management for Pensions, Endowments and Foundations will continue to write about pension risk management. There is a lot more to say.

Pension Governance Ranks High As a Priority

As this blogger, Dr. Susan Mangiero, has pointed out repeatedly since the March 2006 inception of, pension governance counts.

There are numerous ways to quantify the positive impact of governance done well. By extension, the costs of poor pension governance can throw cold water on growth in corprorate earnings and free cash flow. As a result, not only can plan participants suffer but so too can shareholders and creditors should bad employee benefit plan decision-making depress the value of company issued securities.

In a recently issued survey, Towers Watson finds that four out of ten employers "expect to devote more time addressing retirement plan governance issues over the next two years." Reasons cited include the expense of providing benefits, along with more regulatory complexity. Investment volatility was another identified catalyst.

While the in-depth study is not yet published by its sponsor, Towers Watson, it will be interesting to explore later on why more than half of respondents acknowledge the importance of compliance but "only one in four (26%) schedule regular compliance reviews."

Visit for more information.

Co-Leading Pension Risk Management Workshop in Orlando

I am off to Orlando to address the Florida Public Pension Trustees Association about pension risk management. I will be joined by an esteemed colleague, Dr. Michael Kraten, in a presentation about the fundamentals of enterprise risk management (including the famous COSO cube) and the role of the service provider in creating hedging programs and vetting asset managers who use derivatives. The workshop will include two case studies about foreign currency overlay programs and investing in hedge funds and private equity funds, respectively.

Having addressed the Florida Public Pension Trustees Association ("FPPTA") several times before about pension risk management, I am impressed with its commitment to fiduciary education about investment best practices.

Click here to review the FPPTA agenda for the 2011 summer conference.

Pension Risk - Did You Miss the Man in the Gorilla Suit?

While on a "sort of" vacation at a health spa in Arizona, this blog's author has treated herself to some "fun" reading, in between exercise classes and tending to business. As such, I came across an article in the Science Times section of the New York Times that I would have ordinarily set aside. Written about perception and reality, it seems to perfectly capture current happenings in pension land. Coincidentally, its August 21 publication date was the same day I fielded an invitation from CNBC to address whether pensions are taking on too much investment risk, where one goes to unearth information about pension investments and whether there is anything a plan participant or shareholder/taxpayer can do about "excess" pension risk. Unable to coordinate schedules, I will not appear on August 22. However, I encourage readers to download the Squawk Box video of the segment about pension risk. It promises to be interesting and timely.

Let me connect a few dots.

According to George Johnson, author of the aforementioned article, "Sleights of Mind," magicians succeed by exploiting what are described as cognitive illusions - "disguising one action as another, implying data that isn't there, taking advantage of how the brain fills in gaps." According to The Amazing Randi, this means that assumptions are often mistaken for facts.  Courtesy of the Visual Cognition Laboratory at the University of Illinois, a short video illustrates that observation skills are mixed. Only a few audience members who watch a film of basketball players - and then count how many times a particular team (categorized by shirt color) scores - ever notice the man in a gorilla suit walking on stage. (By the way, did you know that there is such a thing as National Gorilla Suit Day? Click here to learn more.)  

How this relates to pension risk is as follows. We know that billions of pension dollars are moving into derivatives, hedge funds, private equity funds, commodity pools, infrastructure, real estate investment trusts and so on. We know that some of these funds invest in economic interests that are "hard to value." We know that not every fund has a solid risk management policy. (Current newspaper headlines make that point abundantly clear.) We know that not every pension fiduciary has a finance background, let alone investment expertise. We know that finding out about a pension fund's holdings and liability risk drivers is often difficult. Form 5500 reports filed by ERISA funds are stale and overly general. Public funds might provide some information online or in response to the Freedom of Information Act but likely not on a frequent enough basis. Even financial footnotes are notorious for what they don't say about pension risk (on both the asset and liability side). It's rare if we even know who is making multi-million decisions about employee benefit plans, let alone be able to review their resume to gauge "suitable" knowledge and experience. We've blogged many times about meaningful disclosure, or more precisely, lack thereof. Click here to access past posts on this topic.

In a soon-to-be released survey about pension risk (co-developed by Pension Governance, LLC and the Society of Actuaries), there is clear evidence that pension fiduciaries perceive that they are doing a great job of vetting external managers with respect to risk management at the same time that the questions they profess to ask are overly simplistic. (Look for the executive summary to be released in mid-September.) Our forthcoming clearly indicates a surge in allegations of breach on the part of the investment fiduciary(ies).  Coincidence? Maybe not.

If the Fed and international central bankers are unable to quell investors' fears, we move into a recession and/or different asset classes get hit hard in terms of price volatility, life is going to be very tough for plan sponsors. Poor practices will likely come to light as large losses occur. Risk is truly a four-letter word. Absence of a rigorous risk identification, measurement and management system (policies, procedures, operations) will leave little room for defense.

 We are going to write much more on this topic in coming months. It's too important to ignore.

P.S. The nice photo comes to readers from the National Zoo.

Pensions and Derivatives, the "D" Word

Are derivative instruments a recipe for disaster, an integral part of effective investment management or something in between? As explained in "Derivatives: The $270 Trillion Gorilla", meteoric growth around the world speaks volumes. At the same time, the incremental risks are real and cannot be dismissed.

Financial News reporter Renee Schultes writes that few fund managers "have the operational infrastructure and expertise to trade outside the listed and less-liquid listed derivatives market." (See "Managers struggle with OTC derivatives trading", Financial News, September 25, 2006.) Financial Times journalists Paul J. Davies, Gillian Tett and Saskia Scholtes chronicle efforts to address operational issues related to derivatives. (See "Derivatives dealers' tough match", Financial Times, September 25, 2006.)

New accounting rules and regulations encourage a paradigm shift that emphasizes risk analysis. Liability-driven investing is the new "it" topic and, by extension, derivatives are getting a serious look by public and ERISA pension fiduciaries alike. Money managers use derivative instruments as well for a variety of reasons such as transforming cash flows, leveraging exposure to a particular asset class or hedging. The Towers Group, a research and consulting firm, reports that "buy-side derivatives usage" is expected to "explode, bolstered by the shift to electronic trading, search for alpha, and more accommodating regulations (such as changes to ERISA and the adoption of the Prudent Investor Rule), which allows derivatives usage in pension funds and institutional money management." (See "Growth in Derivatives to Have Profound Impact on Wall Street Firms", September 18, 2006.)

The ultimate question is whether the expected benefits outweigh the costs. I wrote an entire book on this topic. Written for fiduciaries and related parties, Risk Management for Pension Funds, Endowments, and Foundations is a primer about the risks and benefits of derivatives and, more broadly, risk identification, measurement and control. I could easily write a second book about the topic. There is so much to say.

That is why subsequent posts will address the topic of derivatives, and the fiduciary implications of their use.

For those who want to read more, here are links to earlier blog posts and some articles I've written about risk management.

1. "Derivatives Get the Blame"

2. "Operational Risk and Derivatives"

3. "Derivatives Valuation: One Size Does Not Fit All"

4. "Pension Risk Management: What We Don't Know Can Hurt"

5. "Five Keys to Risk and Risk Management"

You can find lots more by going to our online library. You may also be interested in receiving our complimentary ezine about risk and valuation. Click here to sign up. (A link to our privacy policy is at the same URL.)

Derivatives: The $270 Trillion Gorilla

The just released pension fund asset management guidelines, courtesy of OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), state that "legal provisions should address the use of derivatives and other similar commitments, taking into account both their utility and the risks of their inappropriate use".

I will devote considerable time to the topic of derivatives and pensions in this blog. For now, I will make a few introductory comments to hopefully whet your appetite.

1. Derivatives can be used in a variety of ways to manage assets and/or liabilities and for both defined contribution and defined benefit plans (though there are significant differences with respect to strategy, risk assessment, accounting treatment and so on). I have written a lot about this topic, including a book and countless articles, and there is still much more to say. Identifying, measuring and managing risk is a cornerstone of being a good investment fiduciary.

2. The derivatives market is huge. According to the Bank for International Settlements, outstanding over-the-counter derivatives contracts (in terms of notional amounts) exceeded $270 trillion when estimated in June 2005. Think about it. In comparision, the U.S. national debt tally is approximately $8.36 trillion. Estimated 2005 gross world product is $59.38 trillion. The global derivatives market is the proverbial 200 pound gorilla of the financial world. It is worthwhile understanding why this market continues to grow. (Stay tuned!)

3. Derivatives are contracts that "derive" their value from the value of an underlying security, commodity, index or other type of instrument. For example, the value of a gold derivatives contract depends on the price of cash gold. (Derivatives valuation is a broad topic and will be addressed in other postings.)

4. The term "financial risk management" typically refers to the use of derivatives in some fashion (though this is not always the case).

5. Pension fiduciaries who ignore derivatives, especially if the Investment Policy Statement restricts their use, may want to rethink their stance. They should know that financial performance is impacted by the price behavior of derivative instruments if they have allocated monies to: (a) hedge funds or mutual funds that employ derivatives (b) asset-backed securities such as mortgage-backed bonds or collateral default obligations (c) convertible bonds (d) callable bonds (e) currency sharing agreements (f) private equity with warrant arrangements (g) contingencies of any type and the list goes on.

6. Derivatives, used improperly, can wreak havoc. Much more will be said about the identification and measurement of risk, how to determine appropriate use and a host of other critical MUST KNOW elements of the decision-making process.

7. The issue of a fiduciary duty to hedge is an ongoing and interesting legal question.

8. Financial engineering opens the door wide to a variety of new investment opportunities for pension funds. Fiduciaries must know (or learn) how to evaluate each opportunity. Outsourcing does not eliminate the fiduciary's duty to monitor.

9. Using derivatives is seldom a one-time event but instead requires a commitment to evaluate economic efficacy on an ongoing basis.

10. Creating a risk management process is just the beginning. I will address the Five C Approach(SM) as a way to assist fiduciaries.