Pension Risk News & Analysis : Pension Governance, LLC : Pension Risk & Investment

Though there is a question about whether former Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen ever said "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money," the statement is apt.

A quick read of the headlines suggests things are going to get ugly fast, and with little chance of a let-up anytime soon. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in his October 15, 2007 address to members of the Economic Club of New York was no less sanguine. He offered that "Conditions in financial markets have shown some improvement since the worst of the storm in mid-August, but a full recovery of market functioning is likely to take time, and we may well see some setbacks." Click here to read the full text of his speech.

Billions of dollars in losses, due to sub-prime problems and related woes, pummeled recent earnings for more than a few organizations, sending the equity markets into a tailspin on October 19, 2007. Pundits report that the Dow had its worst day since early August, with worries about a looming recession being only one of several fears. Twenty years after Black Monday (October 19, 1987), the term "deja vu" comes to mind. At that time, this blog's author worked on a futures and options trading desk and well remembers the frenzy that ensued. Names then considered "too big to fail," no longer exist. Sobering lessons learned?

Hopefully.

At a time of unprecedented technological advances in terms of analytical capabilities and information flow, why is it that risk management is still anathema to some? Arguably there will be times when "tail" events occur, despite the best intentions to create, implement and periodically review back-office, middle-office and trading desk activities. One possible silver lining is that organizations (for which this applies) go back to the drawing board to design a more effective set of checks and balances. Improved risk architecture could include any number of things, including the following:

• Frequent and thorough testing of valuation models by independent third parties
• Regular and more granular correlation analysis that (a) takes into consideration the reality that market convergence does sometime occur and (b) then tries to identify when it is most likely to present itself accordingly
• Assessment of hedge effectiveness, and by extension, (a) what factors create "hedge leakage" and (b) thereby leave an organization exposed to adverse market conditions
• Identification of risk drivers, along with both a quantitative and common sense ("smell test") assessment of their likely behavior and probability of occurrence
• Identification as to how to improve collateral management
• Better training for everyone involved in trading activity and oversight
• Improved (or creation) risk budget that explicitly lays out how money is to be allocated on a risk capital basis.

Some will win as markets tremble but what about the losers? After today, equity-laden retirement portfolios won't look so good. Entire employee teams are shutting down as the credit crisis takes hold. Depressed times will certainly force plan sponsors to rethink their investment decisions.

How much money has to disappear before billions mean something other than zeros on a piece of paper?

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Have the last few months of negative headlines scared you yet? If not, don't be too complacent. According to a recent survey conducted by Greenwich Associates, institutional investors have grown weary of structured financial products and fixed income securities. According to a summary provided by CFO.com writer Stephen Taub, a worldwide credit crisis "has caused a nearly complete disruption in the trading and use of many fixed-income products." Even trading in ordinarily liquid corporate bond markets has reportedly been difficult, leaving many scratching their heads as to whether the credit crisis is a short-term blip or a long-lived problem. Taub adds that the survey predates the Fed's recent rate cut. (Click here to read "Liquidity Crunch: How Long Will it Last?")

In his September 20, 2007 testimony before the House Committe on Financial Services, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson describes the "interconnectedness" of global capital markets and the fallout from concerns over sub-prime mortgages - reduced investor confidence, reassessment of risk, and temporary diminuition of liquidity. Describing self-correction tendencies of financial markets, Paulson's more sanguine take can be accessed by clicking here.

After a recent bridge game, I had a chance to ask my friend, Dr. Lucjan Orlowski, for his view of the world around us. As Senior Fellow at the Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI) at the University of Bonn; a Senior Fellow at the Center for Economic and Social Research (CASE) in Warsaw; a Research Fellow at the William Davidson Institute (WDI) at the University of Michigan School of Business, and a Research Professor at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, Orlowski's opinion counts in more ways than one. His prognosis? Not very good - In fact, he was downright gloomy with respect to jobs growth and continued ill-effects of this summer's incorrect pricing of default risk. Click here to read Lucjan's impressive bio.

So what does all of this mean for pension funds? Let us count the ways.

1. Diminished liquidity could imperil a plan's ability to meet its short-term obligations. This is especially serious for mature plans or in situations where labor contracts offer few opportunties to revise cash outflows. How should strategic asset allocations change to reflect a sustained credit crunch (if you accept that premise)?

2. Fewer companies are making their way to capital markets. Will a reduction in fixed income security issuance and/or a widening bid-ask spread make it more difficult for pensions to execute any type of liability-driven investing tactic that involves bonds or bond derivatives?

3. Will a weakening U.S. dollar, likely to experience even more downward pressure as oil producers switch to Euro invoicing, compel plans to seek out international assets? Will plan sponsors need to ask external asset managers more questions about risk controls, notably currency hedging techniques, as a result?

4. Could lower U.S. interest rates push some plans over the edge in terms of funding status and inevitable financial consequences?

5. Will changing correlation patterns, and the related reduction of diversification potential, leave defined benefit plan sponsors in a position of having to take on more risk? In the event that FASB requires additional pension investment risk disclosure, will corporate plan sponsors begin to feel pressure from shareholders as market volatility is more explicitly embedded in financial statements?

These are but a few possibilities for those who see the glass half empty and draining fast.

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In today's "Investors Mull How to Get Out Of Hedge Funds: Market Turmoil Highlights Notoriously Tricky Rules For Redeeming Shares." Wall Street Journal reporters Jeff D. Opdyke and Eleanor Laise paint a grim picture for investors in search of an exit. Besides the fact that many funds only permit redemptions at the end of a month or quarter, written notice is often required, sometimes as much as sixty to ninety days in advance. Even then, punitive fees may be imposed. Additionally, not all investors are equal if side letters exist that favor some over others.

For hedge funds already in crisis mode, redemptions may not come in time to stem further problems nor will they shield an investor from already realized losses. Moreover, fund managers may freeze redemptions, arguing that to do otherwise would imperil their ability to stay in business.

If that isn't gloomy enough, consider that investors who successfully withdraw money from a struggling hedge fund may have to give back. "If a hedge fund fails, in some cases a bankruptcy trustee or other investors may sue investors who have already redeemed money and try to force them to pay that money back into the fund, say Nixon Peabody's Mr. Mungovan and his co-chair of the firm's alternative investments litigation practice, Jonathan Sablone. The trustee could argue that the hedge fund didn't value its assets correctly and that investors withdrew more money than they were entitled to."

Valuation alarm bells are nothing new to this blog. We've been touting the need to assess a manager's valuation policies and procedures for months. As stated countless times before, we've asserted that valuation critically drives reported performance. Reported performance determines fees and fees drive risk management and asset allocation decisions. Now we see firsthand that valuation likewise drives the ability to liquidate.

Being locked up is no fun. For pension funds in desperate need of cash, the current state of affairs is agonizing.

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Recent hedge fund blow ups and mutual fund woes related to market timing and valuation may be a harbinger of things to come. Part of the problem has to do with trading controls that are either weak or non-existent. For institutional investors such as pension funds, this could spell disaster. According to President of Pension Governance, LLC, Dr. Susan M. Mangiero, CFA and Accredited Investment Fiduciary Analyst, "Pension funds have oversight responsibilities with respect to external money managers. They would be remiss not to review their service providers' trading controls. We have only to look at recent headlines for examples of how bad things can get when rogue individuals or computer problems are left unchecked."

The process used to determine limits, authorized persons, style drift early warning signals and liquidity traps are a few of the many topics to be discussed during an August 8, 2007 webinar (noon to 1:15 p.m. EST).

Entitled "Fiduciary Risk, Trading Controls and External Asset Manager Selection," the webinar boasts practitioners with trading desk and risk control experience, including moderator Dr. Susan M. Mangiero and expert guests - Mr. W. Anthony Turner, Principal, Financial Tracking, LLC and Mr. Gavin W. Watson, Business Manager for Asset Managers, Pensions and Insurance, RiskMetrics Group, Inc.

Persons who attend this 75-minute webinar will learn the following:

• What Constitutes "Must Have" Elements of Effective Risk Management System
• Ways to Detect Deviation from Management Style and/or Excess Position Concentration
• Red Flags Regarding Possible Rogue Trading
• Industry Best Practices for Trading Controls and Lessons Learned About What to Avoid
  

Pension Governance, LLC is registered with CFA Institute as an Approved Provider of professional development programs. This program is eligible for 1.5 PD credit hours as granted by CFA Institute.

For more information about the webinar or to register for a modest fee, visit http://pensiongovernance.com/webinars.php?PageId=58&PageSubId=59.

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