Pension Risk Matters : Pension Risk News & Analysis : Investment Governance, Inc. : Pension Risk & Investment

Asset allocation seems to be on the minds of many these days. This is not surprising since empirical studies repeatedly suggest that how monies are apportioned across sectors and instruments is a primary driver of returns.

Some states such as North Carolina are legislating more choices for state retirement funds. According to "Pension fund to get new options" by The News & Observer reporter David Ranii, the Tar Heel State Treasurer will soon have the ability to allocate to junk bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities ("TIPS").

In "Asset allocation survey 2009," Mercer LLC queried European pension funds and uncovered a "continuing focus on risk management and recognition that good governance can improve the investment performance of institutional investors." Notable is the result that mature defined benefit plans tend to reduce their exposure to equity markets in favor of fixed income.

In contrast, Dr. David Gulley, Managing Director at Navigant Consulting, suggests that an exit from equity could be ill-advised for investors seeking returns over many years. In "A Surprising Bear Market Lesson About Bullish Projections" (Law360, July 2009), Dr. Gulley writes that "a substantial and objective body of evidence shows that equity returns are reliable in the long term" and that a positive equity risk premium is "actually a requirement enforced by the market's ability to deny money." If true, the impact is potentially sweeping. For one thing, a migration to Liability-Driven Investing ("LDI") which tends to favor fixed income might prove costly later on. Pension plan decision-makers seeking to reallocate away from long only strategies might incur transaction costs now, only to add opportunity cost to the mix if and/or when the sun rises again in stock land. The net result could be a doubling up of bad news bears (or worse).

Absent a universal acceptance about the role of stocks versus everything else, the debate about optimal strategic and tactical asset allocation mix will no doubt continue for many years to come.

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As of November 15, 2007, those organizations who did not adopt FAS 157 early on will be obliged to disclose much more information about their "hard to value" assets and liabilities. Despite industry's attempts to forestall compliance for another year, the Financial Accounting Standards Board reiterated its intent to force implementation for financial assets and liabilities. Read "FASB Rejects Deferral of Statement 157 for Financial Assets and Liabilities" (November 14, 2007 FASB press release).

For those seeking a user friendly version of this new accounting rule, check out "A FAS 157 Primer" by Mark Gongloff (Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2007). Also check out "A Summary of Statement No. 157" on the FASB website. One important element of FAS 157 is the requirement that items be categorized as belonging to Level 1, 2 or 3 in order of ease of valuation with respect to observable prices (or lack thereof). Predictions abound that FAS 157 will force larger asset write-downs, creating jitters for pensions, endowments and foundations who invest in Level 2 and Level 3 sensitive funds. In a November 15, 2007 CNBC video, economist Nouriel Roubini warns of an impending global recession and a financial meltdown that could roil financial markets for months to come. He is not alone.

In "Why FAS 157 strikes dread into bankers - Just when we hoped the worst was over," William Rees-Mogg (The Times, November 12, 2007) cites research by financial analyst Martin Hutchinson. Financial giants such as Bear Stearns, Lehman  and J.P. Morgan Chase account for more than $100 bilion of FAS 157 Level 3 assets, requiring mark to model information not heretofore provided. The author adds "Even these figures may be understated, since the banks have themselves decided whether assets belong to level three or the more acceptable level two, and they have an interest in placing as little in level three and as much in level two as they reasonably can." Noteworthy is Hutchinson's analysis that Goldman Sachs has disclosed $72 billion of Level 3 assets. That number is relatively big or small, depending on the point of comparison - a $900 billion asset base but capital of $36 billion.

Lest pension decision-makers think they are immune from valuation issues, nothing could be further from the truth. Decision-makers for both 401(k) and defined benefit plans are squarely on the hook for vetting external money managers. This absolutely includes asking copious questions about managers' valuation policies and procedures. A poor job, or ignoring the issue altogether, is going to keep the plaintiff's bar busy indeed.

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