Pension Risk Matters

J.P. Morgan Predicts Gloomy Year Ahead For Pension Plans

According to its Fall 2012 issue of Pension Pulse, published by the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Strategy Group, 2013 is going to be "grim" for pension funds after a less than jovial 2012. Citing a drop in funded status for many U.S. plans this year, "despite a 14% stock market rally," trouble spots are unlikely to disappear any time soon, putting continued pressure on the size of liabilities.

To tame the beasts in the form of "funded status volatility, unfavorable changes in the index used to value pension liabilities and longevity assumptions that increase liability values," employers continue to explore de-risking transactions such as offering lump sums and buyouts. Contrary to popular belief, the authors point out that even companies with underfunded plans like lump sum arrangements. The appeal is in part motivated by tax rules that allow "certain plans to use backdated discount rates to value lump sum payouts" that are higher than current discount rates.

Although the evidence suggests an increased demand on the part of plan sponsors to de-risk, J.P. Morgan professionals reference a ceiling of about $70 billion more over the next four or five years before industry capacity is reached for pension risk transfers. Of course, any time that demand increases and supply remains static, prices will rise as a result. At the margin, that could encourage some organizations from de-risking.

The report goes on to describe a "surreal discount rate" situation as the result of some bank securities being downgraded below AA in June of 2012. The net effect - a change in the discount rate curve that "reduced the weight of financials" - left only ten issuers to make up 75% of the market value of the index. Arguably, this increases the "inherent concentration risk" which in turn could increase the volatility of the index, thereby sending employers off on a measurement roller coaster ride. Shareholders could then feel the pinch if companies have to add cash to a plan as funding levels sink.

Adding insult to injury, the authors describe a change in actuarial assumptions that could significantly push the costs upward for companies that sponsor pension and Other Post Employment Benefits ("OPEB") programs. Their assertions are that (1) "changing actuarial assumptions are likely to increase pension liabilities by 2% to 5%" and (2) uncapped post-retirement health care benefits could go up by 6% to 9%.

Taken individually or together, the various pressures on retirement plan liabilities suggest a busy year ahead for ERISA fiduciaries and their support staff.

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