Hot off the press, the OECD's September 2012 issue of "Pension Markets In Focus" includes some notable statistics about pension schemes around the world. While aggregate assets increased to over $20 trillion (as of December 2011), post-fee real rates of return were miniscule at best. With an average annual rate of return of -1.7%, few winners bested the market at large. The award for the highest performing pension system went to Denmark with an annual return of 12.1% in 2011, followed by the Netherlands (8.2%), Australia (4.1%) and Iceland and New Zealand, each turning in a modest 2.3%. Turkey, Italy, Spain, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States realized negative returns.
The news is not all grim.
According to André Laboul, OECD Head of the Financial Affairs Division Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, assessments of performance that consider many years show that the traditional 60% equity and 40% long-term sovereign bond mix have generated positive returns that range from 2.8% in Japan to 5.8% in the United Kingdom. Of course, many factors are at play, not the least of which is how much latitude an investment committee or policy-making body has to allocate monies locally versus internationally, the rate at which assets grow (and can be put to work) and the fees that are paid to various service providers.
Regarding asset class exposure, OECD researchers note that pension funds' allocation to "public equities declined significantly compared to past years." This trend is likewise noted in the "Global Pension Assets Study 2012." Published by Towers Watson in January, this compilation of interesting data points shows that the Netherlands and Japan have a "higher than average" allocation to bonds. In contrast, "in 2011, Australia, the UK and the US retained above average equity allocations." Apportioning more monies to alternatives is an undeniable reality for retirement plans in multiple countries
Since more than a few people posit that asset allocation decisions dominate portfolio returns, it is critical to track who is investing in what. Pension de-risking activity will likely have an impact on defined benefit plan portfolio mix going forward if, as experts suggest, more companies decide to exit or modify their exposure to the "pension business" by freezing a plan, using derivatives, offering lump sum payouts, entering into group annuities and so on.
Pension restructuring and adding more alternatives are factors that are changing the governance landscape in numerous ways. For one thing, the need for investigative due diligence and independent valuation services arguably becomes more acute. Second, the regulatory focus on holdings disclosure and compensation paid to service providers could inhibit the use of private funds at the same time that yield-seekers are writing checks.
The "push-pull" dynamic is holding everyone's attention since so much money is at stake.