Co-Leading Pension Risk Management Workshop in Orlando

I am off to Orlando to address the Florida Public Pension Trustees Association about pension risk management. I will be joined by an esteemed colleague, Dr. Michael Kraten, in a presentation about the fundamentals of enterprise risk management (including the famous COSO cube) and the role of the service provider in creating hedging programs and vetting asset managers who use derivatives. The workshop will include two case studies about foreign currency overlay programs and investing in hedge funds and private equity funds, respectively.

Having addressed the Florida Public Pension Trustees Association ("FPPTA") several times before about pension risk management, I am impressed with its commitment to fiduciary education about investment best practices.

Click here to review the FPPTA agenda for the 2011 summer conference.

Work Opportunities and Retirement Realities

In its "2011 Retirement Confidence Survey," the Employee Benefit Research Institute found that few people are confident in their ability to retire at the traditional age of 65 or 66 years of age. The jitters make sense given that "A sizable percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings or investments." Funding woes related to Social Security and Medicare benefits add to an already gloomy scenario.

On the bright side, research suggests that work opportunities abound, notably in fields such as professional training, computer games, biotechnology, computer networking, nanotechnology and wireless. According to WIRED Magazine writer Adam Davidson, these opportunities can be collectively labeled "smart jobs" because they are "innovative and high tech," specialized, involving factories and machines and available to transform the middle class. Moreover, the geographic pockets of inspiration include cities such as Provo, Little Rock, Savannah, Wichita, Denver, Reno, Hartford, Rochester, Omaha and Des Moines.

Check out the "The Economic Rebound: It Isn't What You Think" by Adam Davidson, May 31, 2011 for an interesting analysis of the new employment paradigm, one that comes at a time of grave concern about what is next for millions of individuals. In conjunction with National Public Radio ("NPR")'s Planet Money, Mr. Davidson provides numerous examples about industrial and service technologies and processing enhancements that could make an extended work life prosperous for more than a few already at the top.

U.S. Postal Service Pension Suspends $800 MM Contribution

Let me start out by saying that the persons at my local post office are courteous, helpful and generally terrific people. That said, like most, I was surprised at the news about a suspension of nearly a billion dollars owed to this federal pension plan.

I guest blogged about this issue for CNBC on June 23, 2011. My commentary is reproduced below.

No Pension Checks for the Postman to Deliver?

The mail gets delivered in rain or snow but it might not include pension checks for postal workers. According to a June 22, 2011 press release from the United States Postal Service, it intends to suspend what it owes to its pension plan as a way to “conserve cash and preserve liquidity.” By doing so, it frees up $800 million in cash for the current fiscal year.

This federal plan sponsor is not alone.

In what seems like an unending stream of bad news on the government pension front, countless cities and states are making adjustments to their existing pension and health care plans for retirees.

Two legislative bills in Minnesota would freeze public pensions as of July 1. Following an arbitration, City of Detroit policemen will see smaller payouts. Florida teachers are suing over a new retirement income tax. Congress is seeking more transparency about public pension plan IOUs and has talked about how large scale municipal bankruptcies related to retirement plan liabilities could adversely impact the financial landscape.

While some sources say that the underfunding crisis is improving for states and cities, others angst that the problem is getting worse and that major reforms are needed now. As we head into an election year, politicos are atwitter about the funding gaps associated with entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. Add underfunded public and corporate plans to the mix and things get scary fast.

Some retirement plans are trying to make up for losses by investing in riskier assets. Absent a robust risk management infrastructure, taking on more risk could worsen funding problems later on.

There are solutions but someone has to lead the way. Raising taxes and/or rescinding benefits is unhappy news to voters. More likely to occur is a legislative mandate to pass the retirement plan hot potato onto Corporate America.

Unfortunately, individuals are unlikely to escape unscathed. The tax man cometh almost surely. Joe Q Citizen may end up footing the bill for someone else’s pension plan even if his doesn’t offer one. The gap in funding for entitlements, public plans and personal savings makes for a trifecta with few winners unless material changes are made soon.

Note to Readers:

Fiduciary Liability: Risks and Insurance

Thanks to ERISA Attorney Steve Rosenberg for reminding people about an upcoming webinar entitled "ERISA Fiduciaries Under Attack: Key Litigation and Regulatory Developments." Attorney Andrew Oringer, a partner with Ropes & Gray will address recent cases and what the decisions mean to ERISA fiduciaries. He will likewise address the concept of prudence and the role of the investment committee versus the board. Ms. Chris Dart, VP and liability insurance product underwriter for Chubb & Son, will talk about fiduciary liability insurance, recent trends in litigation settlements, what concerns insurance underwriters and best practices to preserve all available coverage. Dr. Susan Mangiero will address the concept of failure to hedge, post-Enron investment in company securities, service provider due diligence and hard-to-value investing concerns.

Click to join us on June 16 from 1:00 to 2:15 pm EST.

Financial Model Mistakes Can Cost Millions of Dollars

 

It's been awhile since I've blogged. Work has been busy and then I took off ten days to visit Paris. The City of Lights is amazing indeed. Now that I'm back, I will try to blog more frequently. There is certainly no shortage of topics about risk, governance, litigation, valuation and so on.

For those who don't know, I created a sister blog a few months ago. See GoodRiskGovernancePays.com. Nearly all of the time, the posts on each blog are different. However, I decided to reprint a post from GoodRiskGovernancePays.com here since the topic is hugely important. After all, for those defined benefit and defined contribution plans that are exposed to "hard-to-value" investments, leverage and perhaps higher than expected volatility, model risk could be the hidden alligator that bites if left unchecked. As always, I welcome your comments at contact@fiduciaryleadership.com.

Here is the post that was originally posted on June 2, 2011 by Dr. Susan Mangiero.

In a recently published article about financial models entitled "Financial Model Mistakes Can Cost Millions of Dollars" (American Bar Association, Section of Litigation, Expert Witnesses, May 31, 2011), Dr. Susan Mangiero defines model risk and explains why it is so important. Referencing the recent $242 million enforcement action by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a result of model mistakes made by a well-known asset management firm, this financial expert cites the heightened regulatory and litigation imperatives with respect to risk and valuation models. She concludes the article by listing some of the ways to mitigate risk. These include, but are not limited to the following:

  • Hire knowledgeable programmers with capital market experience;
  • Create and follow a set of policies and procedures that govern how and who will validate financial models over time and what will trigger revisions in a model(s);
  • Avoid conflicts of interest that would reward managers for ignoring problems and would potentially preclude an independent and objective assessment of problems and related corrective action(s);
  • Test assumptions for validity in stable markets as well as extreme circumstances;
  • Stress a model using a sufficient number of economic scenarios to gauge its predictive power and whether results can be relied upon in both good or bad times;
  • Educate personnel about how a particular model is supposed to work;
  • Establish a response strategy should a problem occur and investors need to be informed before things get out hand;
  • Scrap models that are overly complex and expensive to replicate;
  • Don't be afraid to ask questions about inputs, data quality, results, and concerns; and
  • Invite informed outsiders to offer an independent and regular critique on a confidential basis.